Sooner Underwriting

Expected loss

Expected loss workbench

Seed-run view of PD, LGD, EAD, and sensitivity for the active underwriting config.

Build snapshot as of 2026-04-30. Config values are baked at build time; overrides require a redeploy.

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Equation

Expected loss equation

EL = PD x LGD x EAD

PD2%PD = priorByBand[band]Inputs:band→approveprior→0.02= 2.00%xLGD33%LGD = clamp(1 - recoveryRate - recourseTierCorrection - recourseDepthLgdAdjustment, 0, 1)Inputs:recoveryRate→0.46recourseTier→strongrecourseTierCorrection→0.18recourseDepthLgdAdjustment→0.03= 33.00%xEADAED 256,000EAD = financedFeePctOfPrice × priceBasisAedInputs:financedFeePctOfPrice→0.08priceBasisAed→3,200,000= AED 256,000=ELAED 1,690EL = PD × LGD × EADInputs:PD→0.02LGD→0.33EAD→256,000= AED 1,690

Default probability

Probability of default

Score band thresholds come from the active config set. The selected band feeds the PD prior.

BandScoring rulePD priorSeed match
approveSCS ≥ 70acceptanceThreshold = live config valueInputs:acceptanceThreshold→70= 702%PD approve = live rate x 100Inputs:PD approve→0.02= 2%Selected
committee55committeeReviewThreshold = live config valueInputs:committeeReviewThreshold→55= 55 to 70acceptanceThreshold = live config valueInputs:acceptanceThreshold→70= 706%PD committee = live rate x 100Inputs:PD committee→0.06= 6%Reference
declineSCS < 55committeeReviewThreshold = live config valueInputs:committeeReviewThreshold→55= 5515%PD decline = live rate x 100Inputs:PD decline→0.15= 15%Reference
hardGateHard gate fail100%PD hardGate = live rate x 100Inputs:PD hardGate→1= 100%Reference
PD value2%PD = priorByBand[band]Inputs:band→approveprior→0.02= 2.00%
Scoring bandapproveband = scoreBand(totalScore, thresholds)Inputs:totalScore→99.1acceptanceThreshold→70committeeReviewThreshold→55= approve
SCS total99.1SCS = sum(categoryScore × categoryWeight) / activeWeightInputs:activeWeight→100A1_weightedScore→10A2_weightedScore→7.5B_weightedScore→15C_weightedScore→10D_weightedScore→7.5E_weightedScore→7.5F_weightedScore→5G_weightedScore→5H_weightedScore→15I_weightedScore→4.1J_weightedScore→12.5= 99.1
Tier inputResolved tierWeightScoreWeighted points
Re-Leasing RecourseAcommunityTier = resolvedRecourseTierInputs:communityTier→A= A15%H weight = live rate x 100Inputs:H weight→0.15= 15%100score = tierScore(communityTier)Inputs:communityTier→Aband→100= 10015weightedScore = categoryScore × categoryWeight / activeWeightInputs:categoryScore→100categoryWeight→15activeWeight→100= 15.0
Sector TierT1employerTier = resolvedEmployerTierInputs:employerTier→T1= T112.5%J weight = live rate x 100Inputs:J weight→0.125= 12.5%100score = tierScore(employerTier)Inputs:employerTier→T1band→100= 10012.5score = bandFor(employerTier) × categoryWeight / activeWeightInputs:employerTier→T1band→100categoryWeight→12.5activeWeight→100= 12.5

Loss severity

Loss given default

LGD starts with recovery, then adjusts for recourse tier and rental-depth grade.

LGD33%LGD = clamp(1 - recoveryRate - recourseTierCorrection - recourseDepthLgdAdjustment, 0, 1)Inputs:recoveryRate→0.46recourseTier→strongrecourseTierCorrection→0.18recourseDepthLgdAdjustment→0.03= 33.00%
Recovery rate46%recoveryRate = live rate x 100Inputs:recoveryRate→0.46= 46%
Recourse tierstrongrecourseTier = resolved property recourse tierInputs:recourseTier→strong= strong
ComponentValueFormula
Collection window4 monthscollectionWindowMonths = recovery horizonInputs:collectionWindowMonths→4= 4 monthsRecovery decay input
Recourse depth adjustment3%recourseDepthLgdAdjustment = live rate x 100Inputs:recourseDepthLgdAdjustment→0.03= 3%Rental-depth grade input
Depth gradeAcommunityRecourseDepthGrade = resolved community signalInputs:communityRecourseDepthGrade→A= ACommunity signal

Exposure

Exposure at default

EAD is the financed fee percentage applied to the active price basis.

EADAED 256,000EAD = financedFeePctOfPrice × priceBasisAedInputs:financedFeePctOfPrice→0.08priceBasisAed→3,200,000= AED 256,000
Price basisAED 3,200,000priceBasisAed = max(propertyPriceAed, propertyPriceFloorAed)Inputs:priceBasisAed→3,200,000propertyPriceFloorAed→800,000= AED 3,200,000
Financed fee8%financedFeePctOfPrice = live rate x 100Inputs:financedFeePctOfPrice→0.08= 8%
Price floorAED 800,000propertyPriceFloorAed = live recovery config valueInputs:propertyPriceFloorAed→800,000= AED 800,000

Stress table

Sensitivity grid

Cells vary PD by row and LGD by column while keeping seed EAD constant.

PD ↓ LGD →20%LGD = scenario column rateInputs:LGD→0.2= 20%40%LGD = scenario column rateInputs:LGD→0.4= 40%60%LGD = scenario column rateInputs:LGD→0.6= 60%80%LGD = scenario column rateInputs:LGD→0.8= 80%
1%PD = scenario row rateInputs:PD→0.01= 1%AED 512EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.01lgd→0.2ead→256,000= AED 512AED 1,024EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.01lgd→0.4ead→256,000= AED 1,024AED 1,536EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.01lgd→0.6ead→256,000= AED 1,536AED 2,048EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.01lgd→0.8ead→256,000= AED 2,048
3%PD = scenario row rateInputs:PD→0.03= 3%AED 1,536EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.03lgd→0.2ead→256,000= AED 1,536AED 3,072EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.03lgd→0.4ead→256,000= AED 3,072AED 4,608EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.03lgd→0.6ead→256,000= AED 4,608AED 6,144EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.03lgd→0.8ead→256,000= AED 6,144
5%PD = scenario row rateInputs:PD→0.05= 5%AED 2,560EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.05lgd→0.2ead→256,000= AED 2,560AED 5,120EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.05lgd→0.4ead→256,000= AED 5,120AED 7,680EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.05lgd→0.6ead→256,000= AED 7,680AED 10,240EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.05lgd→0.8ead→256,000= AED 10,240
10%PD = scenario row rateInputs:PD→0.1= 10%AED 5,120EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.1lgd→0.2ead→256,000= AED 5,120AED 10,240EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.1lgd→0.4ead→256,000= AED 10,240AED 15,360EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.1lgd→0.6ead→256,000= AED 15,360AED 20,480EL = PD x LGD x EADInputs:pd→0.1lgd→0.8ead→256,000= AED 20,480