Austin heavy pipeline
measured
Austin, TX: −24.5% to −28% from May-2022 peak to late-2025; median −4.9% from 2024; 12 straight months of YoY declines
MARKET-CONTEXT / crisis-comparison
Decision context for market stress
Public, cited market history and current macro context for underwriting judgment. This page is presentational only and does not change engine scoring.
AXIS 3
3a
Prior-crisis comps
| Crisis | Price | Volume | Duration | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 GFC, US | measured −27% nominal peak to trough; −18.2% YoY in Q4-2008; Sand-State metros −50%+ | estimate Existing-home sales about 7M to about 4M annualized, about −40%+ | measured About 6yr peak to trough; about 10 to 11yr to prior nominal peak | measured Subprime leverage collapse, foreclosure wave, concentrated overbuilding |
| 2008-11 Dubai | estimate Transactions collapsed through 2009; no single citable percentage in the pack | measured Off-plan speculation, excess leverage, limited regulation, supply glut, expat outflow, global credit freeze | ||
| 2014-20 Dubai long grind | estimate 25-35k units/yr versus about 20k absorption, oil $110 to $30, mortgage caps, transfer fee 2% to 4%, strong USD peg | |||
| COVID-2020 Dubai | estimate Additional −5% to −10% in 2020; then +30.86%/sqft in 2022 and about +75% since Feb-2021 | measured 2021 AED 151,070,000,000 12-yr record; 2022 97,466 txns / AED 265,600,000,000 record | ||
| COVID-2020 US | measured Record-low rates, active listings −50%+ versus pre-pandemic, remote-work demand, construction shortages | |||
| 2022 US rate-hike | measured Existing-home sales about −20% in 2022 and about −30% in 2023; Jul-2022 SAAR 4.81M | measured Fed 7 hikes 2022; 30-yr 3.4% to 7.12%; about 80% of holders sub-5%; lock-in = 44% of mobility drop |
3b
Supply differentiator
New York constrained supply
measured
New York / Manhattan: Q2-2020 new-dev sales −54%; median −18% to about $1.0M; 2021 best year ever at $30bn sales; median +11% YoY Q4-2021
Principle
estimate
Inelastic-supply markets show more persistent price pressure and faster recovery; high-pipeline markets stay down longer
Counterpoint
estimate
Counterpoint: supply constraints alone do not fully explain divergence, so supply is dominant but not monocausal
3c
Dubai forward assessment
FrameTwo markets thesis
Current state
measured
Off-plan registrations −9.3% MoM, ready-home sales −37.8% in Q1, off-plan still 78% of txns, off-plan avg AED 2,030/sqft +12.22% YoY
Supply FACTS
forecast
2026 scheduled supply about 77,500 units; tighter forecast 71,613 scheduled and about 34,740 expected to actually deliver
forecast
2027 up to about 70,000 to 70,537 units, about 2x the 5-yr average of about 35,531
forecast
Heaviest-supply communities: JVC about 16,852 units 2025-27; Business Bay about 10,127; Dubai South; Dubai Science Park; Dubai Hills; Creek Harbour; MBR City
forecast
Mid-term supply about 260k to 303k units under construction or scheduled by about 2029
Assessment
estimate
Austin-like: oversupplied, leveraged, investor-heavy mid-tier stock corrects and may stay down longer
estimate
NY-like: supply-constrained, owner-occupier, scarcity stock holds value better and recovers faster
3d
Current outlook
Dated macro backdrop
As of 2026-06-16, refresh from public reads.
Iran MOUmeasured
Mid-June 2026 US-Iran MOU announced around June 15, extending ceasefire 60 days toward permanent end and committing to Hormuz reopening
Hormuzmeasured
Hormuz normalization partial and fragile; post-April ceasefire tolls above $1M/ship and about 4 ships passed day one
Brentmeasured
Brent −20% off 2026 peak; −3.4% single session around Hormuz-reopening expectation
Dubai resiliencemeasured
Dubai cross-border foreign-investment value +26% YoY to AED 148,350,000,000; FI count +11%; new investors +14%; luxury +26% to AED 87,710,000,000
Base caseforecast
Base case: stabilize-then-slowly-rise
Fragilityforecast
Fragile: touch-and-go about 3 months, with expected ups and downs over the next 18 months